Apache County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Apache County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.8, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Apache County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 78.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Apache County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 53.01 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $52K in expected annual loss and about 2.50 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 66K.
Beyond physical exposure, Apache County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Apache County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Greer Fire (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Apache County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 53.01 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.50 / yr | $52K |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.23 / yr | $224K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.75 / yr | $11M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $371K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.02 / yr | $831K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $310 |
| Drought | Low | 105.85 / yr | $79K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.65 / yr | $168K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $32K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Apache County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Greer Fire in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Fire (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Greer Fire |
| September 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Fire | Wallow Fire |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| January 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2004 | Fire | Three Forks Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Apache County?
Apache County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Apache County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (High, $6M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $52K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Apache County compare to other Arizona counties?
Apache County ranks #13 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Apache County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Apache County since 1970, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Greer Fire, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Apache County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.