Sublette County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Sublette County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 21.6, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Sublette County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 21.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $105K in expected annual loss and about 4.46 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.13 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sublette County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sublette County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Sublette County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 4.46 / yr | $105K |
| Avalanche | High | 1.13 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 38.80 / yr | $738K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Very Low | 72.62 / yr | $5K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $231K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $17K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $26K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $21K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 21.12 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sublette County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Fire (1), Drought (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Fire | Roosevelt Fire |
| June 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sublette County?
Sublette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 21.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sublette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $105K EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sublette County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Sublette County ranks #17 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sublette County had?
FEMA records 4 federal disaster declarations for Sublette County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sublette County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.