Lincoln County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.9, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 51.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 1.47 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $144K in expected annual loss and about 4.79 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Lincoln County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 1.47 / yr | $8M |
| Landslide | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $144K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.03 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 24.99 / yr | $359K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $644K |
| Lightning | Medium | 36.93 / yr | $562K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Very Low | 87.64 / yr | $6K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $167K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $113K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $42K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $86K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (1), Fire (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| August 2002 | Fire | Wy - Commissary Ridge Fire - 08/31/02 |
| June 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $8M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $144K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Lincoln County ranks #8 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.