Goshen County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Goshen County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.5, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Goshen County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 28.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.28 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $207K in expected annual loss and about 15.85 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $218K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Goshen County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Goshen County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1999, including 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Goshen County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 4.28 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.85 / yr | $207K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $218K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.79 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 80.71 / yr | $216K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.03 / yr | $87K |
| Tornado | Low | 1.05 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 45.90 / yr | $166K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $144K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $124 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.87 / yr | $152K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $31K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Goshen County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1999, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Severe Ice Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| December 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 1999 | Severe Ice Storm | Wy - Winter Storm 10/5/98 |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Goshen County?
Goshen County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Goshen County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $207K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $218K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Goshen County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Goshen County ranks #14 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Goshen County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Goshen County since 1999, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Goshen County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.