Oconto County, Wisconsin Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Oconto County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.5, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Oconto County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 6.01 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 29.89 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $665K in expected annual loss and about 1.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 39K.
Beyond physical exposure, Oconto County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Oconto County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 72 Wisconsin counties, Oconto County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 6.01 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 29.89 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 1.69 / yr | $665K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $13M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.31 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.81 / yr | $595K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.92 / yr | $43K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.17 / yr | $37K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.83 / yr | $122K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $59 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Oconto County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| April 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Oconto County?
Oconto County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Oconto County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $665K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Oconto County compare to other Wisconsin counties?
Oconto County ranks #40 of 72 Wisconsin counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Oconto County had?
FEMA records 6 federal disaster declarations for Oconto County since 1973, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Oconto County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.