Dane County, Wisconsin Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WI
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Dane County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.9, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $182M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Dane County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $44M in expected annual loss and about 5.74 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 3.78 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.93 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $182M in expected annual loss for a population of 561K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dane County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Dane County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 8 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 72 Wisconsin counties, Dane County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 5.74 / yr | $44M |
| Hail | High | 3.78 / yr | $13M |
| Tornado | High | 0.93 / yr | $26M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.53 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.07 / yr | $84M |
| Winter Weather | High | 16.11 / yr | $710K |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.40 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 37.12 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $67K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.62 / yr | $680K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $105K |
| Drought | Low | 3.44 / yr | $81K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dane County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow and Near Record Snow |
| August 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dane County?
Dane County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dane County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $44M EAL), Hail (High, $13M EAL), Tornado (High, $26M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dane County compare to other Wisconsin counties?
Dane County ranks #2 of 72 Wisconsin counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dane County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Dane County since 1976, most often 8 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dane County's $182M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.