Jefferson County, Wisconsin Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WI

Low

Composite Risk Score

75.8

National percentile: 76th

Jefferson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.8, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.96 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 5.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $42M in expected annual loss for a population of 85K.

Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Jefferson County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.

Among 72 Wisconsin counties, Jefferson County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $42M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 85K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $3M/yr
Medium $7M/yr
Medium $6M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail Medium 3.96 / yr$3M
Tornado Medium 0.43 / yr$7M
Cold Wave Medium 5.47 / yr$6M
Lightning Medium 36.91 / yr$896K
Riverine Flood Medium 1.57 / yr$23M
Heat Wave Low 3.42 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 4.55 / yr$1M
Winter Weather Low 15.11 / yr$104K
Landslide Very Low 0.11 / yr$3K
Ice Storm Low 0.60 / yr$76K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$225K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$31K
Drought Low 1.64 / yr$64K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$4K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Jefferson County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
June 2026FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2008Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2008SnowstormRecord Snow and Near Record Snow
August 2007Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation
June 2004Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
July 1993Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding
August 1991Severe StormSevere Storms & Hail

Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?

Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $7M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Jefferson County compare to other Wisconsin counties?

Jefferson County ranks #18 of 72 Wisconsin counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?

FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1965, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.