Tooele County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Tooele County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.9, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $26M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Tooele County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tooele County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.97 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $26M in expected annual loss for a population of 73K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tooele County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Tooele County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Cherry Fire (fire), declared in June 2026.
Among 29 Utah counties, Tooele County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | High | 11.97 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.11 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.12 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.87 / yr | $762K |
| Drought | Low | 95.38 / yr | $65K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.76 / yr | $699 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $16K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $197K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $62K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $4K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tooele County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Cherry Fire in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Fire (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Fire | Cherry Fire |
| June 2026 | Fire | Iron Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2014 | Fire | Anaconda Fire |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2005 | Flood | Flooding and Landslides |
| August 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| April 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms, Landslides & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tooele County?
Tooele County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tooele County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $14M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tooele County compare to other Utah counties?
Tooele County ranks #10 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tooele County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Tooele County since 1977, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Cherry Fire, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tooele County's $26M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.