Box Elder County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Box Elder County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.9, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Box Elder County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 55.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 58K.
Beyond physical exposure, Box Elder County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Box Elder County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 29 Utah counties, Box Elder County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $16M |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.37 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.49 / yr | $251K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.72 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.65 / yr | $595K |
| Drought | Low | 112.62 / yr | $493K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 3.08 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.72 / yr | $458K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $434K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $170K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $38K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Box Elder County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2005 | Flood | Flooding and Landslides |
| August 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| April 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Box Elder County?
Box Elder County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Box Elder County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $6M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $16M EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Box Elder County compare to other Utah counties?
Box Elder County ranks #9 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Box Elder County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Box Elder County since 1977, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Box Elder County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.