Custer County, South Dakota Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SD

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

16.3

National percentile: 16th

Custer County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 16.3, 16th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Custer County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 16.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 16th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $127K in expected annual loss and about 15.06 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.59 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.

Beyond physical exposure, Custer County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Custer County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.

Among 66 South Dakota counties, Custer County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $9M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 8K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $4M/yr
Low $127K/yr
Very Low $2K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$4M
Winter Weather Low 15.06 / yr$127K
Landslide Very Low 0.59 / yr$2K
Hail Low 6.21 / yr$292K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$63K
Lightning Low 45.32 / yr$123K
Cold Wave Very Low 3.98 / yr$399K
Tornado Very Low 0.37 / yr$396K
Riverine Flood Very Low 1.18 / yr$3M
Drought Very Low 62.71 / yr$2K
Strong Wind Very Low 2.52 / yr$185K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.38 / yr$8K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr$2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr$1
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Custer County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Flood (4), Severe Storm (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2026Straight-Line WindsStraight-Line Winds
March 2026FireQury Fire
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2019FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
December 2017FireLegion Lake Fire
November 2013Severe StormSevere Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding
July 2012FireMyrtle Fire
September 2005Coastal StormHurricane Katrina Evacuation
August 2002FireSd - Battle Creek Fire - 08/18/02

Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Custer County?

Custer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 16.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 16th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Custer County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $127K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Custer County compare to other South Dakota counties?

Custer County ranks #37 of 66 South Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Custer County had?

FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Custer County since 1972, most often 6 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Custer County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.