Lexington County, South Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Lexington County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.9, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $108M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lexington County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.56 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.47 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 5.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $108M in expected annual loss for a population of 294K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lexington County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Lexington County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 13 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 46 South Carolina counties, Lexington County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.56 / yr | $24M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.47 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.68 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 60.03 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $13M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $47M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.64 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 1.84 / yr | $202K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.28 / yr | $11K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $301K |
| Drought | Low | 18.60 / yr | $398K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lexington County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (13), Severe Ice Storm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| November 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lexington County?
Lexington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lexington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $24M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lexington County compare to other South Carolina counties?
Lexington County ranks #9 of 46 South Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lexington County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Lexington County since 1977, most often 13 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lexington County's $108M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.