Chester County, South Carolina Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SC

Low

Composite Risk Score

43.2

National percentile: 43th

Chester County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 43.2, 43th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Chester County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 43.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 43rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $394K in expected annual loss and about 1.93 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $498K in expected annual loss and about 53.15 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.41 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 32K.

Beyond physical exposure, Chester County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Chester County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 46 South Carolina counties, Chester County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $11M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 32K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $394K/yr
Medium $498K/yr
Medium $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm High 1.93 / yr$394K
Lightning Medium 53.15 / yr$498K
Tornado Medium 0.41 / yr$2M
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$690K
Cold Wave Medium 0.21 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 4.65 / yr$653K
Hurricane Low 0.10 / yr$249K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$28K
Riverine Flood Low 0.39 / yr$4M
Landslide Very Low 0.75 / yr$579
Heat Wave Low 3.05 / yr$194K
Drought Low 26.64 / yr$57K
Hail Very Low 4.90 / yr$94K
Winter Weather Very Low 3.68 / yr$15K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Chester County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Severe Storm (3), Tropical Storm (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
September 2024HurricaneHurricane Helene
September 2024Tropical StormHurricane Helene
August 2024Tropical StormHurricane Debby
August 2023HurricaneHurricane Idalia
November 2022HurricaneHurricane Ian
September 2022HurricaneHurricane Ian
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19

Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chester County?

Chester County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 43.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 43th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Chester County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $394K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $498K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Chester County compare to other South Carolina counties?

Chester County ranks #39 of 46 South Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Chester County had?

FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Chester County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chester County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.