McKean County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
McKean County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.8, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in McKean County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 53.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of McKean County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $194K in expected annual loss and about 24.11 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $10K in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $494K in expected annual loss and about 33.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 40K.
Beyond physical exposure, McKean County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: McKean County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, McKean County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 24.11 / yr | $194K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.00 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Medium | 33.89 / yr | $494K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $13M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $210K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.86 / yr | $364K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.16 / yr | $567K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $100K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $294K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $17K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $16K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.06 / yr | $19K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McKean County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| August 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 1999 | Severe Storm | Pa - Flooding 8/20/99 |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McKean County?
McKean County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McKean County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $194K EAL), Landslide (Low, $10K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $494K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McKean County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
McKean County ranks #53 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McKean County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for McKean County since 1972, most often 3 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McKean County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.