Forest County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Forest County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 19.9, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Forest County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 19.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $834K in expected annual loss and about 37.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.33 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $61K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Forest County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Forest County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 4 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Forest County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 37.01 / yr | $834K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $2K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $61K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $259 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.57 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.86 / yr | $117K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $84K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.84 / yr | $89K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 17.74 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.76 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Forest County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| August 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Forest County?
Forest County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 19.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Forest County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $834K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $61K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Forest County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Forest County ranks #63 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Forest County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Forest County since 1972, most often 4 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Forest County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.