Tillamook County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Tillamook County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.3, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Tillamook County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 81.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tillamook County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $66K in expected annual loss and about 6.86 events per year; and volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Very Low risk — $657 in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tillamook County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Tillamook County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2026.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Tillamook County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $14M |
| Landslide | Medium | 6.86 / yr | $66K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $657 |
| Tsunami | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $15M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.83 / yr | $766K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.36 / yr | $62K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $215 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.46 / yr | $135K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.05 / yr | $180K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 12.02 / yr | $11K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $103K |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.03 / yr | $1 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 5.77 / yr | $37K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $67K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $8K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tillamook County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (7), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Pike Road Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2012 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Mudslides, Landslides, and Debris Flows |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tillamook County?
Tillamook County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tillamook County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $14M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $66K EAL), Volcanic Activity (Very Low, $657 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tillamook County compare to other Oregon counties?
Tillamook County ranks #18 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tillamook County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Tillamook County since 1964, most often 11 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tillamook County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.