Jefferson County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 30th
Jefferson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 29.9, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and volcanic activity exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jefferson County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 29.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Low risk — $7K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Jefferson County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 11 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flat Fire (fire), declared in August 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Jefferson County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.03 / yr | $8K |
| Lightning | Medium | 10.95 / yr | $497K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $631K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.76 / yr | $60K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.70 / yr | $871 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.04 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $147K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.28 / yr | $479K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.14 / yr | $77K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Very Low | 60.53 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $114K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $7K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Flat Fire in August 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (11), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | Fire | Flat Fire |
| June 2025 | Fire | Alder Springs Fire |
| August 2024 | Fire | Elk Lane Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Beachie Creek Lionshead Fire Complex |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| June 2018 | Fire | Graham Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 29.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Volcanic Activity (Low, $7K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Oregon counties?
Jefferson County ranks #30 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1964, most often 11 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flat Fire, declared in August 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.