Deschutes County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Deschutes County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.9, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and volcanic activity exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $66M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Deschutes County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Medium risk — $554K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $66M in expected annual loss for a population of 198K.
Beyond physical exposure, Deschutes County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Deschutes County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 11 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Flat Fire (fire), declared in August 2025.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Deschutes County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $13M |
| Volcanic Activity | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $554K |
| Avalanche | High | 0.20 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.50 / yr | $42M |
| Lightning | High | 13.71 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 19.82 / yr | $371K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.49 / yr | $23K |
| Hail | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.02 / yr | $126K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.41 / yr | $539K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.06 / yr | $539K |
| Drought | Very Low | 68.75 / yr | $820 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $62K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Deschutes County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Flat Fire in August 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (11), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | Fire | Flat Fire |
| August 2024 | Fire | Mile Marker 132 Fire |
| June 2024 | Fire | Darlene 3 Fire |
| June 2021 | Fire | 0419 Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Fire | Milli 0843 Cs Fire |
| August 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| June 2014 | Fire | Two Bulls Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Deschutes County?
Deschutes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Deschutes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $13M EAL), Volcanic Activity (Medium, $554K EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Deschutes County compare to other Oregon counties?
Deschutes County ranks #14 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Deschutes County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Deschutes County since 1964, most often 11 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Flat Fire, declared in August 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Deschutes County's $66M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.