Baker County, Oregon Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Baker County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.2, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Baker County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $19K in expected annual loss and about 1.78 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baker County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Baker County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Durkee Fire (fire), declared in July 2024.
Among 36 Oregon counties, Baker County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.07 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.78 / yr | $19K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.44 / yr | $135K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.46 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.27 / yr | $185K |
| Hail | Low | 0.26 / yr | $134K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 21.08 / yr | $64K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $140K |
| Drought | Very Low | 55.93 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $58K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $21K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baker County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Durkee Fire in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Fire | Durkee Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2015 | Fire | Dry Gulch Fire |
| August 2015 | Fire | Cornet and Windy Ridge Fire Complex |
| July 2006 | Fire | Foster Gulch Fire Complex |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Land and Mudslides, Flooding |
| April 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baker County?
Baker County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baker County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $19K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baker County compare to other Oregon counties?
Baker County ranks #23 of 36 Oregon counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baker County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Baker County since 1964, most often 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Durkee Fire, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baker County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.