Warren County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.8, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $62M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Warren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Warren County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.19 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $39M in expected annual loss and about 3.11 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 48.78 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $62M in expected annual loss for a population of 242K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Warren County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Warren County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.19 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.11 / yr | $39M |
| Lightning | High | 48.78 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $8M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.26 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.53 / yr | $321K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.14 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.79 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 3.37 / yr | $570K |
| Drought | Low | 1.97 / yr | $201K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression Ike |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 1989 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $39M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Ohio counties?
Warren County ranks #15 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1968, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $62M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.