Shelby County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Shelby County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.2, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Shelby County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 56.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $561K in expected annual loss and about 43.59 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $647K in expected annual loss and about 3.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 48K.
Beyond physical exposure, Shelby County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Shelby County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Shelby County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.59 / yr | $561K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.24 / yr | $647K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $205K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.27 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.00 / yr | $109K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.93 / yr | $9M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.76 / yr | $556K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.89 / yr | $724K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $29K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.89 / yr | $131K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $5 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Shelby County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression Ike |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $561K EAL), Hail (Medium, $647K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Ohio counties?
Shelby County ranks #46 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Shelby County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Shelby County since 1965, most often 8 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.