Erie County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Erie County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.4, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Erie County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $236K in expected annual loss and about 9.37 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $917K in expected annual loss and about 3.44 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $363K in expected annual loss and about 0.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 76K.
Beyond physical exposure, Erie County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Erie County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Erie County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.37 / yr | $236K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.44 / yr | $917K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.60 / yr | $363K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.07 / yr | $13M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.55 / yr | $900K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $490K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $70K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.26 / yr | $874K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $61K |
| Lightning | Low | 38.96 / yr | $187K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $614 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.42 / yr | $212K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Erie County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| July 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| August 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 1992 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erie County?
Erie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $236K EAL), Hail (Medium, $917K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $363K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erie County compare to other Ohio counties?
Erie County ranks #37 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Erie County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Erie County since 1969, most often 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erie County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.