Ashtabula County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 63th
Ashtabula County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.6, 63th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ashtabula County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 62.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 63rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $319K in expected annual loss and about 25.05 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.61 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 98K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ashtabula County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Ashtabula County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 3 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Ashtabula County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 25.05 / yr | $319K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.61 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.50 / yr | $12M |
| Hail | Low | 2.97 / yr | $458K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.24 / yr | $176K |
| Lightning | Medium | 38.65 / yr | $315K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $303K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $77K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.28 / yr | $332K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.15 / yr | $439K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $123 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ashtabula County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Severe Storms and Flooding Due to the Remnants of Hurricane Sandy |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| April 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow and Near Record Snow |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| June 1985 | Tornado | Severe Storms & Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ashtabula County?
Ashtabula County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 63th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ashtabula County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $319K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ashtabula County compare to other Ohio counties?
Ashtabula County ranks #35 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ashtabula County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Ashtabula County since 1969, most often 3 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ashtabula County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.