Tinian Municipality, Northern Mariana Islands Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MP
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 0th
Tinian Municipality faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 0.0, 0th national percentile), driven primarily by a mix of natural hazards exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Tinian Municipality carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 0.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 0th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
No individual hazard records measurable expected loss in Tinian Municipality in the current dataset, which keeps its overall expected annual loss low at $2M.
Beyond physical exposure, Tinian Municipality has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Tinian Municipality has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 14 for typhoon events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Typhoon Bavi (tropical storm), declared in July 2026.
Among 3 Northern Mariana Islands counties, Tinian Municipality ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $92 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $255K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $762K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $97 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tinian Municipality has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Typhoon Bavi in July 2026. Most frequent causes: Typhoon (14), Tropical Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | Tropical Storm | Typhoon Bavi |
| April 2026 | Hurricane | Super Typhoon Sinlaku |
| April 2026 | Tropical Storm | Typhoon Sinlaku |
| October 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Bolaven |
| June 2023 | Tropical Storm | Typhoon Mawar |
| May 2023 | Tropical Storm | Typhoon Mawar |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Typhoon | Typhoon Bualoi |
| October 2019 | Typhoon | Typhoon Hagibis |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tinian Municipality?
Tinian Municipality has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 0.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 0th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tinian Municipality?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very Low, $0 EAL), Coastal Flood (Very Low, $92 EAL), Cold Wave (Very Low, $0 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tinian Municipality compare to other Northern Mariana Islands counties?
Tinian Municipality ranks #3 of 3 Northern Mariana Islands counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tinian Municipality had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Tinian Municipality since 1987, most often 14 for typhoon events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Typhoon Bavi, declared in July 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tinian Municipality's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.