Warren County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.8, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Warren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Warren County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $668K in expected annual loss and about 15.58 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $120K in expected annual loss and about 6.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Warren County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Warren County ranks #74 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 15.58 / yr | $668K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.89 / yr | $120K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $1000K |
| Hail | Low | 3.16 / yr | $207K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $227K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.79 / yr | $249K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.39 / yr | $44K |
| Lightning | Low | 45.72 / yr | $74K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $288K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.85 / yr | $185K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $93 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2016 | Hurricane | Hurricane Matthew |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $668K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $120K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Warren County ranks #74 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.