Wake County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Wake County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.5, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $299M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Wake County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Wake County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 4.10 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $222M in expected annual loss and about 4.64 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 6.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $299M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.13M.
Beyond physical exposure, Wake County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Wake County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 11 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Wake County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 4.10 / yr | $13M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.64 / yr | $222M |
| Heat Wave | High | 6.89 / yr | $15M |
| Tornado | High | 0.41 / yr | $20M |
| Lightning | High | 50.26 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.59 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $12M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.37 / yr | $425K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $7M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.44 / yr | $11K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $115K |
| Drought | Low | 13.52 / yr | $248K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.94 / yr | $861K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wake County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2016 | Hurricane | Hurricane Matthew |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wake County?
Wake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $13M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $222M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wake County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Wake County ranks #4 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wake County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Wake County since 1968, most often 11 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wake County's $299M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.