Transylvania County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Transylvania County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.2, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Transylvania County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 64.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $66K in expected annual loss and about 1.18 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 2.99 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $452K in expected annual loss and about 1.56 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Transylvania County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Transylvania County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 8 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Transylvania County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $66K |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.99 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.56 / yr | $452K |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.13 / yr | $344K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.43 / yr | $9M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $377K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $156K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.27 / yr | $439K |
| Hail | Low | 4.49 / yr | $197K |
| Drought | Low | 33.37 / yr | $87K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.12 / yr | $13K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Transylvania County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2025 | Fire | Table Rock Fire |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Transylvania County?
Transylvania County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Transylvania County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $66K EAL), Cold Wave (High, $6M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $452K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Transylvania County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Transylvania County ranks #63 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Transylvania County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Transylvania County since 1993, most often 8 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Transylvania County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.