Polk County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Polk County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.9, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Polk County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 36.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Polk County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $512K in expected annual loss and about 0.65 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $497K in expected annual loss and about 1.86 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $308K in expected annual loss and about 56.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 9 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Polk County ranks #90 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 0.65 / yr | $512K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.86 / yr | $497K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.01 / yr | $308K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $157K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.13 / yr | $435K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $968K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $207K |
| Drought | Low | 38.19 / yr | $82K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.78 / yr | $552K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Hail | Low | 5.19 / yr | $107K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.48 / yr | $30K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.09 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Snowstorm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2025 | Fire | Black Cove Fire Complex |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $512K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $497K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $308K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Polk County ranks #90 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1977, most often 9 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.