Lenoir County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Lenoir County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.6, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $36M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lenoir County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $500K in expected annual loss and about 3.42 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $36M in expected annual loss for a population of 55K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lenoir County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lenoir County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 20 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Lenoir County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 3.42 / yr | $500K |
| Hurricane | High | 0.31 / yr | $15M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.31 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.07 / yr | $13M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.05 / yr | $820K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $767K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $679K |
| Hail | Low | 3.70 / yr | $415K |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.63 / yr | $360K |
| Drought | Medium | 7.63 / yr | $326K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $119K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.42 / yr | $596K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $64 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lenoir County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (20), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lenoir County?
Lenoir County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lenoir County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $500K EAL), Hurricane (High, $15M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lenoir County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Lenoir County ranks #28 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lenoir County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Lenoir County since 1968, most often 20 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lenoir County's $36M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.