Granville County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
Granville County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.4, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Granville County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $174K in expected annual loss and about 7.21 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $666K in expected annual loss and about 18.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 61K.
Beyond physical exposure, Granville County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Granville County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Granville County ranks #68 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.21 / yr | $174K |
| Drought | Medium | 18.12 / yr | $666K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.32 / yr | $894K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Low | 3.75 / yr | $421K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $492K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.52 / yr | $245K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.59 / yr | $87K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.22 / yr | $353K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $184 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $219K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Granville County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Granville County?
Granville County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Granville County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $174K EAL), Drought (Medium, $666K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Granville County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Granville County ranks #68 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Granville County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Granville County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Granville County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.