Burke County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Burke County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.2, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Burke County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $809K in expected annual loss and about 1.49 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $805K in expected annual loss and about 54.66 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 88K.
Beyond physical exposure, Burke County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Burke County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 8 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Burke County ranks #52 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.49 / yr | $809K |
| Lightning | High | 54.66 / yr | $805K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.32 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $15M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.20 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $738K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $370K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.25 / yr | $587K |
| Drought | Low | 31.87 / yr | $253K |
| Hail | Low | 5.10 / yr | $315K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.07 / yr | $937K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.53 / yr | $422K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.16 / yr | $31K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Burke County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| March 2021 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Eta |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Burke County?
Burke County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Burke County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $809K EAL), Lightning (High, $805K EAL), Landslide (Low, $12K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Burke County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Burke County ranks #52 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Burke County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Burke County since 1974, most often 8 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Burke County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.