Lincoln County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.6, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 7.26 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $447K in expected annual loss and about 16.11 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 88.85 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1994, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in June 2026.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Lincoln County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 7.26 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 16.11 / yr | $447K |
| Drought | Medium | 88.85 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $275K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.63 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Low | 1.47 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.74 / yr | $621K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.21 / yr | $422K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.50 / yr | $7M |
| Lightning | Low | 43.11 / yr | $211K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.06 / yr | $713 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $98K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.02 / yr | $31K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1994, most recently Wildfires in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (3), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| September 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $3M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $447K EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Lincoln County ranks #17 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1994, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.