Jefferson County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 24th
Jefferson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 24.1, 24th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jefferson County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 24.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 24th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Jefferson County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.10 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $223K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $951K in expected annual loss and about 4.71 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Jefferson County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (winter storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Jefferson County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 8.10 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $223K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.71 / yr | $951K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.02 / yr | $189K |
| Drought | Medium | 25.01 / yr | $424K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.11 / yr | $81K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.55 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.68 / yr | $155K |
| Lightning | Low | 45.59 / yr | $95K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $21 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.32 / yr | $56K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (7), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms, Ice Jams, and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 24.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 24th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $223K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $951K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Jefferson County ranks #43 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1967, most often 10 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.