Arthur County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

0.3

National percentile: 0th

Arthur County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 0.3, 0th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $743K.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Arthur County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 0.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 0th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $96K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $197K in expected annual loss and about 70.94 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very Low risk — $117K in expected annual loss and about 6.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $743K in expected annual loss for a population of 434.

Beyond physical exposure, Arthur County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

History supports the rating: Arthur County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in June 2026.

Among 93 Nebraska counties, Arthur County ranks #87 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $743K Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 434 Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Very Low $96K/yr
Low $197K/yr
Very Low $117K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$96K
Drought Low 70.94 / yr$197K
Hail Very Low 6.06 / yr$117K
Landslide Very Low 0.65 / yr$37
Cold Wave Very Low 5.16 / yr$65K
Lightning Very Low 42.32 / yr$30K
Winter Weather Very Low 15.68 / yr$6K
Tornado Very Low 0.33 / yr$38K
Heat Wave Very Low 1.05 / yr$1K
Strong Wind Very Low 1.99 / yr$17K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$2K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.03 / yr$449
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.07 / yr$175K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Arthur County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Wildfires in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (3), Fire (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
June 2026FireWildfires
March 2026FireMorrill-Cottonwood Fire
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2019FloodSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
April 2010FloodSevere Storms, Ice Jams, and Flooding
July 2009Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes
August 2007Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Arthur County?

Arthur County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 0.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 0th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Arthur County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Very Low, $96K EAL), Drought (Low, $197K EAL), Hail (Very Low, $117K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Arthur County compare to other Nebraska counties?

Arthur County ranks #87 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Arthur County had?

FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Arthur County since 1967, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in June 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Arthur County's $743K EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.