Arthur County, Nebraska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NE
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 0th
Arthur County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 0.3, 0th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $743K.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Arthur County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 0.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 0th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $96K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $197K in expected annual loss and about 70.94 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very Low risk — $117K in expected annual loss and about 6.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $743K in expected annual loss for a population of 434.
Beyond physical exposure, Arthur County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Arthur County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in June 2026.
Among 93 Nebraska counties, Arthur County ranks #87 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $96K |
| Drought | Low | 70.94 / yr | $197K |
| Hail | Very Low | 6.06 / yr | $117K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.65 / yr | $37 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 5.16 / yr | $65K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 42.32 / yr | $30K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.68 / yr | $6K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $38K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.99 / yr | $17K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $449 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $175K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Arthur County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Wildfires in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (3), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms, Ice Jams, and Flooding |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| August 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Arthur County?
Arthur County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 0.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 0th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Arthur County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Very Low, $96K EAL), Drought (Low, $197K EAL), Hail (Very Low, $117K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Arthur County compare to other Nebraska counties?
Arthur County ranks #87 of 93 Nebraska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Arthur County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Arthur County since 1967, most often 4 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Arthur County's $743K EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.