Toole County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 13th
Toole County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.0, 13th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Toole County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 13.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 13th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Toole County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.51 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $34K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $39K in expected annual loss and about 22.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Toole County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Toole County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2024.
Among 56 Montana counties, Toole County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 10.51 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 22.34 / yr | $39K |
| Drought | Low | 58.97 / yr | $52K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $60K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $151 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.48 / yr | $81K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $18K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 19.57 / yr | $26K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $10K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Toole County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Ice Jams, Soil Saturation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Toole County?
Toole County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 13th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Toole County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $34K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $39K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Toole County compare to other Montana counties?
Toole County ranks #37 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Toole County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Toole County since 1975, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Toole County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.