Musselshell County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 17th
Musselshell County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 17.0, 17th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Musselshell County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 17.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 17th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $426K in expected annual loss and about 30.79 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Musselshell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Musselshell County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 4 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in October 2023.
Among 56 Montana counties, Musselshell County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.79 / yr | $426K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.95 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.89 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.23 / yr | $77K |
| Hail | Low | 2.06 / yr | $112K |
| Drought | Very Low | 70.35 / yr | $9K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.11 / yr | $36K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.92 / yr | $52K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $34K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Musselshell County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Flooding in October 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Fire (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2020 | Fire | Bobcat Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2012 | Fire | Dahl Fire |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Musselshell County?
Musselshell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 17.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 17th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Musselshell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $426K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Musselshell County compare to other Montana counties?
Musselshell County ranks #34 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Musselshell County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Musselshell County since 1977, most often 4 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in October 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Musselshell County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.