Mineral County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Mineral County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.3, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Mineral County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 7.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $55K in expected annual loss and about 1.05 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $603K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $457K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mineral County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Mineral County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Mineral County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.05 / yr | $55K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $603K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 56.51 / yr | $60K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.21 / yr | $41K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $56K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.05 / yr | $299K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.16 / yr | $32K |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.53 / yr | $77 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18.10 / yr | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $12K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mineral County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Biological (2), Straight-Line Winds (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Fire | West Mullan Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2003 | Fire | Mt-Missoula/Mineral Fire Zone-08/08/03 |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2000 | Fire | Mt-Southwestern Zone Two Fire Complex |
| February 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Ice Jams |
| January 1974 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding & Landslides |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mineral County?
Mineral County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mineral County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $55K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $603K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $457K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mineral County compare to other Montana counties?
Mineral County ranks #42 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mineral County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Mineral County since 1974, most often 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mineral County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.