Warren County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.3, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Warren County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 55.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 11.89 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $13K in expected annual loss and about 0.62 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $977K in expected annual loss and about 5.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Warren County ranks #49 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.89 / yr | $6M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.62 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Medium | 5.37 / yr | $977K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.34 / yr | $216K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $14M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $102K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.28 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.58 / yr | $938K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.95 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.05 / yr | $58K |
| Drought | Low | 2.42 / yr | $42K |
| Lightning | Low | 50.39 / yr | $167K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (4), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| December 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| January 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Landslide (Low, $13K EAL), Hail (Medium, $977K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Missouri counties?
Warren County ranks #49 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1973, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.