Sullivan County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 10th
Sullivan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 10.1, 10th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Sullivan County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 10.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 10th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $17K in expected annual loss and about 0.67 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $488K in expected annual loss and about 14.50 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sullivan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sullivan County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Sullivan County ranks #112 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.67 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Medium | 14.50 / yr | $488K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.30 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.11 / yr | $295K |
| Hail | Low | 3.66 / yr | $175K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.58 / yr | $611K |
| Lightning | Low | 47.26 / yr | $85K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.19 / yr | $194K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.53 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sullivan County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Severe Ice Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sullivan County?
Sullivan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 10.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 10th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sullivan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $17K EAL), Drought (Medium, $488K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sullivan County compare to other Missouri counties?
Sullivan County ranks #112 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sullivan County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sullivan County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.