Monroe County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Monroe County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 21.2, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Monroe County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 21.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.53 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $376K in expected annual loss and about 48.04 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $257K in expected annual loss and about 5.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monroe County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Monroe County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Monroe County ranks #101 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.53 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.04 / yr | $376K |
| Drought | Low | 5.08 / yr | $257K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $206K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $895K |
| Hail | Low | 3.70 / yr | $146K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $500K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.84 / yr | $34K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.48 / yr | $240K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $23K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monroe County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Severe Ice Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monroe County?
Monroe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 21.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monroe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $376K EAL), Drought (Low, $257K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monroe County compare to other Missouri counties?
Monroe County ranks #101 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monroe County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Monroe County since 1973, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monroe County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.