Douglas County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 24th
Douglas County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.7, 24th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Douglas County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 23.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 24th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Douglas County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $356K in expected annual loss and about 1.60 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 2.09 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $789K in expected annual loss and about 12.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Douglas County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Douglas County ranks #94 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $356K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.09 / yr | $8K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.58 / yr | $789K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $440K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.65 / yr | $602K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $62K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.11 / yr | $661K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $878K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.95 / yr | $33K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.97 / yr | $98K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $9K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 6.43 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.32 / yr | $12K |
| Hail | Very Low | 6.14 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 24th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Medium, $356K EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $789K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Missouri counties?
Douglas County ranks #94 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.