Caldwell County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Caldwell County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.4, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Caldwell County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $368K in expected annual loss and about 14.99 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $899K in expected annual loss and about 3.47 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $308K in expected annual loss and about 11.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caldwell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Caldwell County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Caldwell County ranks #108 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 14.99 / yr | $368K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.47 / yr | $899K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.00 / yr | $308K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $1K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Hail | Low | 6.59 / yr | $177K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $645K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.63 / yr | $39K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.68 / yr | $24K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $38K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 48.27 / yr | $67K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.93 / yr | $158K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caldwell County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caldwell County?
Caldwell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caldwell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $368K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $899K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $308K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caldwell County compare to other Missouri counties?
Caldwell County ranks #108 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caldwell County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Caldwell County since 1965, most often 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caldwell County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.