Bates County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 30th
Bates County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 30.5, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bates County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 30.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $818K in expected annual loss and about 5.45 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $402K in expected annual loss and about 7.29 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $587K in expected annual loss and about 14.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bates County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Bates County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Bates County ranks #83 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.45 / yr | $818K |
| Hail | Low | 7.29 / yr | $402K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 14.95 / yr | $587K |
| Drought | Low | 7.76 / yr | $249K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.11 / yr | $946K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.89 / yr | $51K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $179K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.51 / yr | $51K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $629 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.75 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 52.23 / yr | $51K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bates County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Severe Ice Storm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bates County?
Bates County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 30.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bates County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $818K EAL), Hail (Low, $402K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $587K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bates County compare to other Missouri counties?
Bates County ranks #83 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bates County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Bates County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bates County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.