Warren County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Warren County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.3, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Warren County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 14.46 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 3.96 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.73 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 45K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Warren County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 14 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Warren County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 14.46 / yr | $15M |
| Hail | High | 3.96 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.73 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.47 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.84 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.53 / yr | $21K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $257K |
| Lightning | Medium | 68.66 / yr | $458K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $763K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $607K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.82 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 2.37 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Hurricane (7), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes. |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $15M EAL), Hail (High, $4M EAL), Tornado (High, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Warren County ranks #6 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1971, most often 14 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.