Tunica County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 36th
Tunica County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.3, 36th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Tunica County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 36.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 36th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tunica County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $418K in expected annual loss and about 12.71 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $400K in expected annual loss and about 22.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tunica County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Tunica County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Tunica County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 12.71 / yr | $418K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 22.53 / yr | $400K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.27 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.77 / yr | $65K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $41K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.42 / yr | $361K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.34 / yr | $175K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.56 / yr | $70K |
| Lightning | Low | 62.11 / yr | $60K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $125 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.63 / yr | $8K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tunica County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Hurricane (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tunica County?
Tunica County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 36th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tunica County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Drought (Medium, $418K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $400K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tunica County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Tunica County ranks #59 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tunica County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Tunica County since 1973, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tunica County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.