Sunflower County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS

Low

Composite Risk Score

69.6

National percentile: 70th

Sunflower County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.6, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Sunflower County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 69.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $962K in expected annual loss and about 12.62 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 26K.

Beyond physical exposure, Sunflower County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Sunflower County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 9 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.

Among 82 Mississippi counties, Sunflower County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $18M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 26K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $5M/yr
Medium $962K/yr
Low $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Cold Wave High 1.26 / yr$5M
Drought Medium 12.62 / yr$962K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$2M
Tornado Medium 0.58 / yr$3M
Heat Wave Low 17.84 / yr$864K
Hail Medium 2.88 / yr$476K
Hurricane Low 0.05 / yr$529K
Ice Storm Medium 0.86 / yr$119K
Strong Wind Medium 2.21 / yr$520K
Riverine Flood Low 1.29 / yr$5M
Lightning Low 63.67 / yr$158K
Landslide Very Low 0.17 / yr$88
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$5K
Winter Weather Very Low 3.32 / yr$8K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Sunflower County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Hurricane (4), Winter Storm (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
October 2021HurricaneHurricane Ida
August 2021HurricaneHurricane Ida
April 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
April 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2016FloodSevere Storms and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sunflower County?

Sunflower County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Sunflower County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL), Drought (Medium, $962K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Sunflower County compare to other Mississippi counties?

Sunflower County ranks #21 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Sunflower County had?

FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Sunflower County since 1971, most often 9 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sunflower County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.