Newton County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Newton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 52.4, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Newton County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 52.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.77 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.12 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Newton County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Newton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 9 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Newton County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.12 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.26 / yr | $639K |
| Hail | Low | 4.00 / yr | $300K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.63 / yr | $458K |
| Drought | Low | 16.27 / yr | $223K |
| Lightning | Medium | 71.85 / yr | $211K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $254K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.00 / yr | $75K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.42 / yr | $32K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Newton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Hurricane (7), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes. |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornado |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Newton County?
Newton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 52.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Newton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Newton County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Newton County ranks #38 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Newton County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Newton County since 1974, most often 9 for severe storm events and 7 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Newton County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.