Madison County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Madison County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.1, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $54M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Madison County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 15.16 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $54M in expected annual loss for a population of 109K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Madison County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 12 for severe storm events and 9 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Madison County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 1.04 / yr | $15M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.16 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $7M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.29 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.13 / yr | $733K |
| Lightning | Medium | 69.54 / yr | $899K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.64 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.54 / yr | $20M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $176K |
| Drought | Medium | 14.92 / yr | $678K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $68K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Hurricane (9), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes. |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $15M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Madison County ranks #11 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1969, most often 12 for severe storm events and 9 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $54M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.