Carroll County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Carroll County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.3, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carroll County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 23.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1000K in expected annual loss and about 2.48 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $6K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $314K in expected annual loss and about 16.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carroll County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 11 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Carroll County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.48 / yr | $1000K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.01 / yr | $6K |
| Drought | Medium | 16.60 / yr | $314K |
| Hail | Low | 3.13 / yr | $297K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $338K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $123K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.16 / yr | $273K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.61 / yr | $758K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.07 / yr | $40K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $465K |
| Lightning | Low | 66.09 / yr | $107K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.37 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Hurricane (6), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $1000K EAL), Landslide (Low, $6K EAL), Drought (Medium, $314K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Carroll County ranks #69 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1971, most often 11 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.