Lincoln County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 18th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.2, 18th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 18.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 18th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $794K in expected annual loss and about 4.79 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $136K in expected annual loss and about 21.37 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $444K in expected annual loss and about 10.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Lincoln County ranks #71 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $794K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.37 / yr | $136K |
| Drought | Medium | 10.17 / yr | $444K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.74 / yr | $109K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.16 / yr | $400K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 12.58 / yr | $904K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $908 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.35 / yr | $298K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.36 / yr | $474K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 35.57 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 18th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $794K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $136K EAL), Drought (Medium, $444K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Lincoln County ranks #71 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.