Barnstable County, Massachusetts Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Barnstable County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.1, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by coastal flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $82M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Barnstable County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Very High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 4.83 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $44M in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $82M in expected annual loss for a population of 229K.
Beyond physical exposure, Barnstable County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Barnstable County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 10 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (winter storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 14 Massachusetts counties, Barnstable County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Coastal Flood | Very High | 4.83 / yr | $12M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.15 / yr | $20M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.07 / yr | $44M |
| Lightning | High | 15.13 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 0.55 / yr | $561K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.08 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.29 / yr | $789K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $59K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.15 / yr | $76K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $230K |
| Drought | Low | 1.87 / yr | $31K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.58 / yr | $450K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.79 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Barnstable County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Snowstorm (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| April 2022 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| April 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barnstable County?
Barnstable County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Barnstable County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Coastal Flood (Very High, $12M EAL), Hurricane (High, $20M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $44M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Barnstable County compare to other Massachusetts counties?
Barnstable County ranks #9 of 14 Massachusetts counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Barnstable County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Barnstable County since 1972, most often 10 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barnstable County's $82M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.